Roundtable Predictions: USU Edition

Here are the Roundtable Predictions from Cougaracity contributors. I apologize for the lack of content this week. These Friday-night games throw me off. We'll be better next week and in the future:

Preston - BYU 24, Utah St. 13
If we have learned anything in the first four games of this season it is that the BYU defense is for real.  They have risen to the occasion time after time and bailed out the inept offense to steal wins at Ole Miss and last Friday night at home to Central Florida.  I expect to see more of the same from the BYU defense, and maybe, just maybe... some life from Jake Heaps and the offense as they look for a little revenge from last seasons embarrassment against Utah St.

Daniel - BYU 38, Utah St. 17

Most of the sparkle of Utah State's surprising performance against Auburn in week 1 has faded, since Auburn's defense has been exposed as downright bad. BYU, I think, poses the best defense the aggies have/will see all season. Expect Chuckie "Wonder Boy" Keeton to look his age (if he didn't already against Colorado State). Also, don't be shocked if this is the week Jake Heaps FINALLY gets his head on straight--last year's game gainst USU was far and away the low point for the 2010 Cougars, and discussion in the offseason indicates they haven't forgotten. Factor in the revenge narrative, and I think the Cougars run away with this one.

Scott - BYU 34, Utah St. 13

From all of the talk Utah State seems to be getting from BYU fans, you probably wouldn't think the Aggies were 1-2 this year. People have been talking up USU since the Auburn game, but is everybody blind to the fact that Auburn actually plays awful defense? They give up about 530 yards a game. And did USU's defense make a statement? No, sir. The other games were against Weber St. (an FCS team) and Colorado St. (a team BYU destroyed last year). CSU was the best defense USU faced, and the Rams would be the worst BYU has faced. I'm not saying USU's offensive numbers should be ignored, but they ought to be taken with a salt shaker at least. USU has not faced a defense even close to the Cougars. BYU's defense will make Turbin look considerably worse and will contain Chuckie Keeton. As the eternal optimist, I think Jake Heaps will have a solid game against the worst defense he's played so far, and the running game builds on last week's progress.

Ben S. - BYU 33, Utah St. 17

Firstlys, I think Gary Andersen has been prepping this game for 2 weeks. 2 things worry him- Kyle Van Noy, and #3... both on defense for BYU. I expect trickeration out of USU.  They are desperate for the first back to back victory versus BYU in a LONG time, and the first win in LES since the 70's.  Normally, USU sports a 3 man rush, with Turbin leading the way, and their freshman QB running a spread read attack.  They also employ several screen type plays. When USU is on offense, I would expect a rush/screen attack until BYU's defensive backfield starts to cheat up, then some trickeration to take place out of the safeties being up field.  BYU will counter this by trying to leave Uale and Sorensen in a 2 deep.  Blitz packages from P Hadley, Sampson, Pendleton, and KVN spying the QB will be used to stop the Aggie offense (which was very offensive last week, by the way). The Cougar offense will dial the passing back to about 30 passes per game. BYU will try to overpower USU's defensive line with multiple Karyia runs up to middle, and some outside runs to DiLuigi. Of note, one this that Jake Heaps needs to do is stay in the pocket with the ball longer.  2 seconds isn't cutting it.  In watching other very successful QBs this year, they are averaging a second or more longer in the pocket than Heaps.  The O line needs to give him time, and he needs to get comfortable in a D-I game.

 

A Couple of Mornings After: BYU vs UCF from Jake

Four games into this season and one thing is pretty clear about this football team: This is not BYU football as we have known it.

In the last ten years we haven’t had a defense this athletic, an offense this inconsistent and a special teams unit that, well, is somewhat special. We hope that the offense will catch up in the coming weeks but at least we know that our defense will show up when we need it to.

At this point I think every BYU fan has to eat their slice of humble pie and accept the fact that everyone was 100% wrong with their expectations of the offense. I won't go into detail about what people were saying, but most of us were wrong.

The funny part is this offseason BYU did everything that we the fans wanted them to do. We wanted Robert Anae gone and we got it. We wanted Brandon Doman as the offensive coordinator and we got that too. I’m not saying that those moves were bad ones, but they obviously didn’t make everything perfect.

Why are we struggling on offense? I could write a masters thesis on this subject, but I’ll just try and shed some light on what I think could be causing some problems.

"So I'm NOT as bad as fans said?"

Even though we all hated him, Robert Anae had a good offensive system. He learned his stuff under the tutelage of Mike Leach at Texas Tech. That being said, dear Robert couldn’t game plan or play call for his life. He got out-coached on a regular basis and that’s what ultimately what led to his demise. But like I said, the system that he brought over with him from Tech was a good one.

When you have an offensive coordinator that was formerly an offensive line coach, you have someone who knows how that unit works, inside and out. In all of the years that Anae was at the helm, the one thing we could count on year in and year out was that we would have a rock solid offensive line. Anae built his plays from the perspective of an O-line coach.

This year we have Brandon Doman who played three years in the NFL as a backup QB then made his transition to coach the same position in the college game. He knows the quarterback position and what needs to happen for them to succeed.

It’s possible that Doman focused a little too much on developing a high-flying downfield attack without putting a lot of his time into how things would work up front. Maybe that’s why we are seeing so many running plays blown up in the backfield and miss-communication on blitz protection.

I understand that the offensive line isn’t 100% and our running backs are sub par at best, but the offensive coaches knew what kind of talent they had coming into the season. It’s not their job to make sure we know how much we need a better running back. They need to utilize the talent that they have and go from there.

Like any new coach, Doman will have his struggles with the new offense, but I trust that he and Mark Weber, the offensive line coach, will figure things out.

I don’t want to spend a whole lot of time talking about Jake Heaps but I will say this. Every single time he goes back to pass, I get this horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach that something really bad is going to happen.

This same exact things would happen back in 2002-2003 when Matt Berry would throw the ball. The sad thing is Jake has the potential to be as good as, if not better than, Max Hall or John Beck. As of right now, he’s just a head case. I can’t figure out if he is overthinking everything or if he isn’t thinking at all.

The biggest problem with Jake is his inability to put touch on his passes. He needs to take some time and watch a couple of Boise State game tapes. Jake could learn a thing or two from Kellen Moore on how to throw a catchable ball.

This is by far, the most entertaining defense that BYU has produced in the last 20 years. Last week I made the trek out to Provo and despite the fact that we got embarrassed, I came away knowing that we have a crazy athletic defense.

Before every game I have a ritual where I go down to the east sideline and watch BYU warm up. I have been doing this for the last three years and what I saw last Saturday was a defense that is bigger and faster than any BYU defense I have ever witnessed.

This is manifest in their play on the field as well. There are certain years when BYU has touted amazing athletes but for some reason it never really showed up on game day. These guys are for real. Kyle Van Noy is a freak of nature. If you watch that sack that he had on the last series, you don’t even see him on the screen then he flies into the backfield to take down one of the fastest QBs in Division I football. And that’s just one play.

My favorite aspect of this defense is the way they smack people in the mouth. Every game we have seen at least three or four hits we have seen hits that are highlight worthy. Just think about the last four games and try to count how many players the BYU defense has knocked out of the game for at least one play. By my count there are at least 12.

The defense isn’t perfect by any means, but they play hard and they are fun to watch. Even if they give up a big play they are still laying people out and causing turnovers.

Play of day goes to Cody Hoffman, not for his 93-yard kickoff return that ended a 13-year drought for he Cougars. On J.J. DiLuigi’s 18 yard touchdown run, Hoffman has a textbook block that allowed J.J. to cut up the field and into the end zone. Most wide outs will get lazy with their blocking technique but Cody stuck with it. It’s the little things like making a key block or running a good rout that will make a difference for this offense.


Posted by Jake
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Roundtable Predictions for UCF

Well, you may have noticed we haven't said much this week (then again, you may not have noticed). We took some time off to internalize the Game Which Shall Not Be Named. We were able to observe some of the reactions from Cougar Nation, and we will have more on that next week, so stay tuned.

Anyway, we are a little short on roundtable participants this week. Frankly, between the self-imposed silence and remembering recently that the game is tonight, not everyone was able to throw in their two cents. However, we are hoping Preston, Scott, and Daniel are able to take us home tonight. Boom!

Scott  

BYU 31, UCF 10

As always, I remain optimistic. I really do feel like the offensive struggle are based on the fact the personnel is still learning the offense and the first three games were against the three best defenses BYU will face all year (Remember TCU has the 103rd best defense despite playing a schedule no better than in 2010). The lack of running game is a huge factor, but the Utah game is not indicative of who BYU is as a team. Anyone with a brain that watched that game knows the SEVEN turnovers were an aberration not a trend. Consider how many drives were terminated by turnovers. Consider how the offense had several good drives last week. Consider how they did that with no run support. That will change. Once that happens, the success of the offense will increase as well. Heaps will throw for another 300+ yards, and the running game will finally pass the century mark. It's a different BYU from here on out.

Daniel

BYU 35, UCF 17

You heard it here first. BYU will have zero trouble getting motivated following the game that will not be mentioned directly. Their defense (don't let last week's score fool you) was not the problem. BYU's woes continue to be a national worst 1.9 yards per carry, and Heaps deserves more credit for moving the ball than he's currently getting from Cougar Nation. Throw in the fact that there's no way BYU turns the ball over 7 more times, and I think we're in for a laser show from Heaps & co. Call me crazy today. But call me psychic tomorrow.

Preston


BYU 20, UCF 13

After attending one of the worst games in the program's history this past Saturday in the beat down that was the Cougar 54-10 loss to the Utes, I think BYU has nowhere to go but up. Central Florida lost a game last Saturday to Florida International by a touchdown, but it was a game in which they were favored to win by 17 points. I do not think Central Florida is playing at the level they have in the past, and BYU playing at home and coming off a humiliating loss I believe gives them the edge in this match up. PREDICTION: BYU rushes for over 100 yards for the first time this season

Premature Box Score: BYU-Utah

Great Scott! This week's "Premature Box Score" is brought to you by ... Scott and Daniel. Read below for a peak into the future.
BYU 27, Utah 13 

Passing
Heaps: 24-37 for 247 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Rushing

Collage done by Salt Lake Tribune

DiLuigi: 12 rushes for 35 yards
Quezada: 7 rushes for 28 yards
Kariya: 7 rushes for 20 yards, TD

ReceivingApo: 6 catches for 77 yards, TD
Jacobson: 4 catches for 35 yards
Hoffman: 3 catches for 45 yards
Wilson: 2 catches for 31 yards, TD
Falslev: 1 catch for 12 yards
DiLuigi: 6 catches for 33 yards
Holt: 2 catches for 24 yards
Defense1 recovered fumble
2 INT
87 rushing yards allowed
180 passing yards allowed

OK.

I think this might be a mini-breakout game for Jake Heaps. His stats listed above aren't exactly setting the world on fire or anything, but they're solid and better than either of the first two games.

I'm a firm believer that Texas' defense is SIGNIFICANTLY better than Utah's. Last year it was ranked #6 for total yards allowed, despite having five of the top 20 offenses on its schedule. Utah was #19 with a schedule that included some of the worst offenses in the game: Wyoming (#116 out of 120), UNLV (#118), and New Mexico (#120).

But that was last year. Obviously, I'm not saying that Utah's defense is not good - certainly, it is. However, it is unproven. What do you take from beating Montana St.? What do you take from allowing USC 17 points, when USC only managed 19 points the week before against Minnesota (Minnesota, by the way, allowed 28 points against New Mexico State)?

I'm not convinced Utah's defense is any better than it was last year, but I think BYU's offense has grown since last year (really, I do), so I felt the stats would be not great, but an improvement over last year's game.

On the defensive side of the ball, I think we dominate. Jordan Wynn does not look very good at all. He looks worse than in years past, and always struggles against BYU's defense (career QB rating vs. BYU is 93.8, which is worse than Jake Heaps' was against Texas), and he's never seen BYU's defense as good as it is now.

If a group of duck hunters found a colony of wounded ducks, I think it is fair to say duck hunting would become significantly easier for those hunters. What's my point? Well, I guess I am saying I expect BYU's defense to see a lot of wounded ducks in the air tonight.

Go BYU! #BeatUtah

PB&J Report: Rivalry Week Edition

Cougaracity contributors Preston Johnson, Ben Wagner, and Jake Welch podcast-ed it up once again this week. In this week's episode, the gang talk about BYU's huge Texas disappointment and BYU-Utah RIVALRY WEEK. Listen to it here and check out their blog here.

Also, you can subscribe to the PB&J Report by clicking on the link below:

This link

Enjoy the game!

Roundtable Predictions: Utah at BYU

It's that time of the week again. Time for the Cougaracity Roundtable Predictions for the rivalry game: Utah vs. BYU. This week our special guest predictors were former BYU and Utah hoopsters Sam Burgess and Chris Burgess. Check out their predictions at one of these links:

This Link or This Link

Anyway, enjoy the predictions from our staff below, and click on their names to follow them on Twitter.

Daniel


BYU 31, Utah 24 - This one is hard to pick, simply because I can't stop thinking about last Saturday. There are no excuses for not winning in Texas, and I wonder if the team is as hung up about that pointless loss as I am. But ultimately, I think there's going to be no trouble for BYU getting their minds right for Rivalry Week, even if it is coming mid-September vs. late November. If there was ever going to be a week to bring our ground game to life, this would have to be it. Utah doesn't sport the defensive speed of a Texas (or even an Ole Miss), and the Cougs should be able to clear enough space to get some semblance of a rushing game going.  Even if Utah can replicate Texas' second half defense and give Jake Heaps problems, I'd still take a befuddled Heaps over whatever type of Jordan Wynn is showing up on gameday. I like the Cougars in this one, winning by seven.

Preston

BYU 20, Utah 17 - Going with the same score as last time in my prediction against Texas which ended up being pretty close. I expect the same type of game as neither the Cougar or Ute offense has looked very explosive this season. With BYU having the revenge factor going into this year's rivalry game, along with being home, I think the Cougars pull it out late.

Ben W.

Utah 15, BYU 13 - Both offenses are terrible each scoring just one TD. BYU again kicks two field goals but leading 13-10 late, Jake Heaps gives Utah a safety and they then drive the ball to get a game winning FG. 15-13, Utah over BYU.

Ben S.

BYU 23, Utah 13 - The Cougar offense opens up, as the defense continues as one of the top defenses in the country. Jake Heaps throws multiple touchdowns, but the Cougar defense confuses Jordan Wynn into some costly turnovers. The rivalry game does not come down to a last minute play, and the Cougar win 23-13.

Jake

BYU 17, Utah 13 - Jake Heaps finally realizes that he needs to prove himself to the world and starts to play like a man instead of a child. He takes a few more risks and this will get him into trouble at times. Utah's offense will come up with two big plays that will keep them in the game but in the end BYU will be able to win the field position battle and squeak out a victory.

Scott

BYU 27, Utah 13 - Yes, once again, I have the most optimistic prediction among the Cougaracity contributors. However, this time it is more about how little I think of Utah's team (particularly on the offensive side of the ball) than my pie-eyed, head-in-the-clouds predictions of previous weeks. (But I will have you know, the 1st half of the TX game aligned pretty well with my prediction) Anyway, Jordan Wynn looks awful. He's not getting away with his wounded-duck throws forever, and this is the week it really bites him in the rear. Utah's defense is nowhere near as good as Texas' is, and, to me, it has only proven it can stop Montana State and do a slightly better job against USC than Minnesota (a team that allowed 28 points by New Mexico State). Expect better from Jake Heaps and Co.  I believe them when they say they're on the verge.

Rivalry Predictions: Sam + Chris Burgess

Sam Burgess, Guard, BYU Cougars (2004-2008)

I've been following this rivalry for a long time and it usually ends up in a hard fought close game no matter who has the better team coming in. In the end I think BYU's defense will determine the outcome.
BYU 20 UTAH 17

Chris Burgess, Forward/Center, Utah Utes (2000-2002)

This is a rivalry game that should never die, regardless of conference affiliation (or non-affiliation). Utah currently has the upper-hand being 6-4 in the past 10 games (thank you Crowton years), and overall series leader. But with all the drama that there has been between these two teams e.g., Gomes, 34-31, Kaneshiro, cheerleader vs. fan, TDS, 3-0, Harline's still open, two Utah BCS/undefeated seasons, Max Hall, and last year's finish à la Burton.  BYU/Utah has lived up to and deserves the final game of the season hype and stage. To be talking BYU/Utah in September is wrong. 

Regardless, this year I am looking for the following from The Game: Utah's D to make Heaps give us a 2008 Max Hall performance, for Norm Chow to turn up the heat, and that Coach Whit and the Utes can leave Provo with a W. 31-10 Utah!

PS: Can someone get Bronco a new shirt? The skin color t-shirt needs to go. Majerus' sweater had more style than that.