Cougaracity Predictions: UTAH!

Rivalry Week!!!

The game is tomorrow, and here's what our self-proclaimed experts have to say about the outcome:

Daniel Anderson (@d_anderson11)
Well well well, we meet again, Ute fans. It's been awhile (about 10 months actually, which was the last time our schools played in any sport with significane, a near 20 point drubbing of your runnin' basketball squad). These get togethers are becoming less frequent ever since you jumped ship for the PAC-12, anxious to breathe deep in the historic aroma of your new surroundings. Ah, but you quickly learned that a more prestigious conference does not a better sports team make, unfortunately.

And no, I haven't forgot the score to last year's contest, but seeing as how you just got through losing to Utah State, a team we beat by narrowest margin possible, I think it's safe to say that we're a little closer in skill level than last year might have left you to believe. Also, it's probably not likely we turn the ball over another twenty times this year.

What is likely is a close contest, with Kyle Van Noy slaking his thirst for vengeance on the bones of your offensive skill players. True, BYU suffered a bit of set back when Jordan Wynn was injured last week and decided to call it a career, but I expect Jon Hays or Travis Wilson to still be sufficiently rattled by KVN's presence. I'm somewhat rattled by his presence. At home. In my living room. In Houston.

I know that according to the Ben Wagner Theory of BYU Sports Pessimism that if I predict a BYU victory it automatically means a BYU defeat, but I'm going out on a limb here, Ute fans. I don't think a Riley "I AM an Army of One" Nelson led Cougar team lets this one get away. It'll be close, like it normally is, i.e. not like last year. But I'm thinking 35-27, Cougars. See you this winter.

Scott Gower (@smg1981)
I'm not sure if I've ever looked forward to a game more than I do for this one. Maybe it's because I've never seen BYU take a beating like the one they got last year. While I don't think BYU was actually 44 points worse than Utah last year, we certainly looked it. Seven turnovers, including four with a very significant impact on the game (1 returned for a TD, 2 at our own 6 yard line or closer, and another just 3 yards away from a TD for us. A 28-point swing!) are hard to overcome, but Utah deserves credit for creating those turnovers. That said, it won't happen again.

I think you'd be hard pressed to find someone - if they are being honest with themselves - who'd say Riley is an excellent passer. Nevertheless, I think he is very mentally tough and possesses the kind of leadership that precludes a breakdown like 2011 from happening again. In Riley's worst game (vs. TCU), in spite of all of the special teams mishaps, Riley still led BYU from a 35-10 deficit late in the 3rd quarter to finish the game down only 38-28. Yes, we still lost, but the team didn't quit, which what it seemed like it did late in the 3rd quarter vs. Utah last year.

I think Riley and the offense can be successful against the Utah defense. We all felt the offense was impotent last year at this point, and it still racked up 354 yards. And forgive me if I don't think Utah's defense for this game is as good as last year's. Graduation, injury, transfer, and suspension have impacted this defense for the worse. I think a Riley-led offense can move the ball and put some points on the board. Conventional wisdom would tell you Doman only used what he needed to against the WSUs. I expect he'll unleash some unused things against Utah and Boise State. (More Taysom Hill? Pretty please?)

This BYU team will never quit with Riley in charge, and the defense is not only good enough to completely shut down Utah's offense (read: John White IV), but it is more than angry enough to do so. Last year left an indelible mark on them, and they demand satisfaction. If this rumor I am creating right now is correct, then Kyle Van Noy has been locked in a padded room with a bunch of John White IV quotes on the wall. He'll be ready.

BYU 24, Utah 13

Jake Welch (@jraywelch)
Both teams come into this game with an axe to grind. Utah is looking to bounce back after losing to USU, and BYU should still have the 54-10 beatdown fresh in their memory. BYU should come out and lay down the lay but that just doesn't happen, at least under Bronco Mendenhall. Oh well. I'm predicting an ugly game for both teams. Lots of punting in the first half and turnovers in the second. This might seem rather strange but I'm going to call this game based on the uniforms that BYU wears. If the go all white, they will lose. While the all whites looks nice, they result in ugly offensive performances. If they wear anything besides all white, they will win. It sounds ridiculous, but trust me. I have another theory that if a player gets married, the next season he will be worthless (McKay Jacobsen, Jake Heaps). Anyhow, here are the scores.

ALL WHITE: Utah 23, BYU 17

ANYTHING ELSE: BYU 20, Utah 13

Steve Pierce (@steve_pierce)In our preseason predictions, I foresaw a close loss to the Utes in Salt Lake City. Of course, that was before our neighbors to the north looked utterly uninspiring in a blase win over Northern Colorado and a pathetic loss to Utah State. After seeing all that, have I changed my mind? Maybe. I want to believe what my eyes have seen -- that, through two games, BYU has looked like the superior team on both sides of the ball. However, the memory of last year's 54-10 drubbing remains fresh in my mind, so I'm hesitant to get too optimistic.

Like all good rivalries, BYU-Utah match-ups are almost always competitive (with a few notable exceptions) -- and, despite Utah's injury problems, I expect this one to be no different. After being embarrassed in Logan last weekend, the Utes will undoubtedly come out ready to (in the words of the five greatest rappers of all-time) "spit hot fire" at their hated rivals. They will be jacked up and ready to play in front of a ravenous home crowd. If BYU can somehow match that intensity, they should be in good shape. If not, they will likely lose to a team that, on paper, they should beat. Either way, I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring defensive showcase, with a few big plays making the difference. Let's just hope Riley Nelson can outduel Jon Hayes when it matters. 

BYU 23, Utah 17

Preston Johnson (@prestonvjohnson)

This game falls in an interesting situational spot for both teams. The Utes are coming off their big loss at Utah St. last week and early retirement announcement from Jordan Wynn. Jon Hays actually started 9 games last season and Utah looked better after Wynn went down, so this is no reason for BYU to be excited. The Cougars look to tackle the Holy War on the road after losing an absolute bloodbath last year in Provo when they fell to Utah 54-10. To put more at stake, we aren't even sure when the next Holy War will be in the future so this game will hold a lot of bragging power. On top of everything else, BYU has Boise St. on the road just 5 days later on a Thursday night.

I personally would have felt more comfortable going into Saturday if the Utes didn't just get it handed to them by the Aggies. I expect Utah to be playing at a different level than we saw last Friday night in Logan. Both of these defenses are very, very good. I think BYU has the more dynamic offense, but both teams have the players on defense to limit any big offensive explosions. Fortunately for the Cougars, they have just one or two more of those playmakers on offense, and it will be hard for the Utes to limit Cody Hoffman and company for 60 minutes.

I think BYU will squeak out a win in Salt Lake City 20-17. Look for Kyle Van Noy to be the difference maker late in a close game and set up the offense with a chance to win the game late.

Rivalry Predictions: Burgess vs. Abouo

As many of you have noticed, it is Rivalry Week. BYU will travel north to play Utah this Saturday. We thought it would be appropriate to get some alumni predictions. Fortunately, Charles Abouo, the winningest basketball player in BYU history, and former Ute baller Chris Burgess were willing give their forecast for Saturday night's game. 

Last year, when Chris submitted his prediction, he predicted a blowout in Utah's favor (31-10). I thought he was nuts and almost asked him to try again (not really). Then the actual game happened, and it turned out his prediction was a bit on the conservative side. So, uh, he certainly showed me. 

Anyway, enjoy these rivalry game predictions from Charles Abouo and Chris Burgess.

Charles Abouo (2008-2012)
I am not a college football expert by any means, but I've had a chance to watch BYU football quite a bit in my 4 years there. I think this is a BYU team that has really improved over the last year. It's been fun to see how great our defense is, and Coach Mendenhall has done a great job as DC. We had a great finish to the season last year, and that momentum has carried into this year.  Our returning guys seem to be picking up right where they left off, and the newcomers or (returners with bigger roles) are making huge contributions. I was able to watch the first game of the season and was really impressed with how we played on both sides of the ball. It seems this team plays together and is full of competitors. I think the coaching staff has done a great job with the preparation, heading into this year. We have a competitive group of guys, and I think they have been waiting for this game for quite a while. I don't know much about Utah, They need to bounce back from a tough game in Logan, but I give the cougars the edge in this one. In my opinion, it will be a great game because these teams will not be playing for a while, so I'm eager to watch this one from online from Spain. I think BYU will win this one. I don't know about the score. If I had to choose, I would say 24-14 (BYU).

Chris Burgess (1999-2002)

First, I want to say how sad I am for Jordan Wynn and the way that his playing career has ended. No player deserves to go out that way.  On a personal level, although I was able to continue with basketball after college, I feel Jordan's pain to the extent of his collegiate career being cut short. In my 2 seasons at the U, I missed a total of 31 games due to injuries.  23 of those games coming my senior season after I tore my plantar fascia on ABC vs top ranked University of Texas in the Huntsman Center.  This injury came early on in the season and ultimately ended my college career. I feel for Jordan and not only want to thank him for what he's done at the U but wish him luck in the next chapter of his life.  

Now, I'm feeling a lot of pressure about this year's pick, especially after being the only one to call for the blow-out and Utah holding BYU to 10 points. Having just made the trip up to Cache Valley to see the Utes lose to a tough Utah State team, it's hard to be as confident about a win as I was last year. That said, Utah has to shore up their issues on the O-line, be able to hold onto the ball, and get to Riley Nelson. Being at home is our biggest advantage, and I'm looking for Utah to bounce back and hit BYU in the mouth. 24-17... A Utah Man am I!

PS: I'm not thrilled about Hays and Wilson named listed as co-starters. Pick one. 

Pulse of Cougar Nation: Which Games Will BYU Win in 2012?

Which games will BYU win during its 2012 season? Below is a table that shows what BYU fans thought:

It is pretty apparent that BYU fans feel, out of the 12 games on the 2012 schedule, 8 of them are givens. Those games should ensure at least 8 wins on the season. It's the four road games against the four most difficult opponents on the schedule that makes fans nervous.

So, going off these numbers, this is the 2012 schedule put in order from most likely to win to least likely to win:

1. Weber State
2. Hawaii (tie)
2. Utah State (tie)
2. San Jose State (tie)
2. Idaho (tie)
6. New Mexico State
7. Oregon State (tie)
7. Washington State (tie)
9. Utah
10. Georgia Tech
11. Boise State
12. Notre Dame

I Can't Even PRETEND To Be Surprised
I don't think we can legitimately be surprised that the vast, Vast, VAST majority of BYU fans feel the Cougars will beat Weber State, San Jose State, Idaho, Hawaii and New Mexico State. None of these teams pose much of a threat to BYU, as demonstrated by the bludgeonings they received in 2011.

I'm Not NOT Surprised
BYU put a pretty decent hurt on Oregon State in Corvallis last year, so I can understand why BYU fans would feel pretty confident in a home-game scenario. There's just smidge of surprise that 96.3 percent felt that was a W. Same goes for Washington State (96.3 percent). I mean, I think we'll win, but the other Cougars aren't like George-Michael-from-Arrested-Development bad at football, are they? (That was the best George-Michael-catching video I could find. Sorry.)

OK, I'm Pretty Surprised
Utah State. OK, two years ago, we lost and lost pretty badly to the Aggies. We all remember it. Last year, Riley Nelson performed a miracle (turning a bad football team into a good football team) to give us the come-from-behind victory. We should win this game, but 98.8 percent is a pretty high level of confidence considering the past two season.

The confidence for Utah game was a bit odd to me as well. I know the 54-10 beatdown is a tad deceptive, considering all of the unforced errors that led to points for Utah in that game. I also realize the BYU players want to right that wrong (especially Kyle Van Noy). That said, Utah didn't really lose all that much from last year to this year. We can win, but the confidence level surprised me is all.

Also, I kind of thought Georgia Tech was the toughest game on the schedule, so I was somewhat surprised to see the majority of fans - as slim a majority as it is (51.6 percent) - consider this a win, which leads me to...

I'm More Shocked Than Zack Was When He Found Out Jessie Was Taking "Drugs"
Really?! Notre Dame?! REALLY?!?! We get beat by Utah 54-10 at home last year, but Notre Dame, a team that hasn't managed better than an 8-5 record in the last five seasons, is the team we're all afraid of? I honestly don't get it. This isn't to say that I think we will definitely win, but I think Georgia Tech is more likely to be a loss, since GT is the second opponent in a row located on the other side of the country. Chances are, if BYU is going to be tired or fatigued, it's going to be against the second opponent. Also, Georgia Tech is a better team.

As far as Boise State is concerned, I don't see them as the second-toughest opponent on the schedule. I would put Georgia Tech, Utah, and even Notre Dame ahead of them. Boise State has lost so much that, despite being a very good home team, it is silly to think they won't have a big drop off. They're replacing the best QB ever to play for BSU (by a Shawn Bradley-sized difference), and on top of it, they're losing another 15-16 starters. It's a big deal. Peterson has a great program, but great programs are not immune from down years. This will be a down year.

That said, I expect 9 regular season wins from the Broncos, and we could still lose that game. I'm just shocked at that game being the 2nd-scariest opponent on the schedule.
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If the fans are right, we're looking at a season with 9 or 10 wins, which would be fine (to me). Hopefully, they're wrong in a more positive way, and we can win every game this year.

Jimmer on SC and Highlights from the game

After dropping a phat 47 on Utah on Tuesday night, Jimmer Fredette talked to ESPN's Scott Van Pelt on Sportscenter.


And in case you missed it, here are the highlights from the BYU-Utah game on Tuesday night: