Premature Box Score - Texas

BYU @ Texas, 7 pm ET/5 pm MT, ESPN2

Here is this week's peek into the future (prepare your mind for being blown). Daniel takes a look at what most certainly WILL happen Saturday, when the BYU Cougars meet the Texas Longhorns in Austin, Texas.

BYU 27, Texas 24

Passing:

Heaps 24-40; 3 TDs; 1 INT; 231 yards

Rushing: 

Quezada 8 carries for 39 yards, 1 TD

Di Luigi 10 carries for 42 yards

Kariya 3 carries 9 yards

Receiving:

Apo, 6 catches for 80 yards, 2 TD

Jacobson, 3 catches for 21 yards

Hoffman, 4 catches for 58 yards

Wilson, 2 catches for 18 yards

Falsley, 1 catch for 6 yards

Di Luigi, 8 catches for 48 yards, 1 TD

Defense: 

130 rush yards allowed

215 pass yards allowed

1 INT

1/1 Fumbles Forced/Recovered

We don’t exactly have a huge sample size from which to draw, but after week one, this is without doubt the most accurate predictive box score on the internet.

Let’s take you through how we derived these numbers. First we made some assumptions:

Assumption 1: Texas looked a little sharper than Ole Miss did on opening weekend, with more offensive weapons and a quarterback, junior Garrett Gilbert, with a full season under his belt. Don’t expect quite the same dominant defensive performance from the Cougars.

Assumption 2: The BYU offense will be facing more defensive speed in Texas, but surely won’t be playing under the weight of so much rust. Di Luigi’s high reception numbers reflect Heaps’ perhaps too frequent reliance on checking all the way down to J.J. in downfield situations. But look for the Cougs to start spreading the field vertically and hitting deep targets Apo and Hoffman with more frequency.

(Receiving corps side note: During BYU's fourth quarter touchdown drive against Mississippi, they kept the drive going by hitting McKay Jacobson over the middle. With his speed, he outran linebackers and turned it up field to move the chains. Traditionally, Jacobson has almost exclusively been a deep threat—running fly routes and getting overthrown by a shaky freshman Jake Heaps until BYU basically abandoned the play altogether. My question: Why don’t they utilize him more midfield like they did this past Saturday? Jacobson can burn linebackers over the middle and Heaps and can place the ball with enough spice to help him avoid getting get laid out. Get to work on this, BYU--this first one is free.)

BYU’s offense looked thoroughly West Coast. This isn’t necessarily good or bad. Heaps is going to have to settle in to make the scheme work—a lot depends on hitting his men in stride and being opportunistic with downfield opportunities. Here’s hoping those opportunities come more frequently. Heaps has too much talent to basically play four to six yards down the field for 70 percent of the game.

The defense still plays a solid game, forcing two turnovers by the Longhorn offense. However, the secondary was aided by the Ole Miss WRs' inability to make big plays. Might not be the case against the Longhorns. A trick play here, maybe some blown coverage there, and Texas is in this until clock gets to 0:00.

My Trip to Oxford, Mississippi

*A thought: Ole Miss fans really haven't embraced the Rebel Bear mascot just yet.

Like many of the members of Cougar Nation, I decided to head down south to Oxford, Mississippi, for the opening game of the 2011 BYU football season. To say I wasn't disappointed would be like saying ice cream isn't horrible or trick-or-treating isn't boring or my two-year-old daughter isn't calm when she doesn't get her way.

The trip was a lot of fun for many reason, but what stood out early on was the tailgating scene on campus at The Grove.

These pictures really don't do it justice. Sure, it looks like a lot of people (and it is), but it is only a drop in the bucket compared to the total number of people there. Acres of tent and people and BBQ made the gathering an eyesore in of itself. Lots of awesome, hospitable people with a handful of knucklehead's sprinkled in (like any fan base has).

Coming from someone who really hates walking around at fairs and the rest of that ilk, I couldn't get enough of walking through all of this and getting a good view of the culture surrounding The Grove.
Here's when the Ole Miss buses pulled up for the players to do the "Walk of Champions." Pretty cool sight.

BYU huddles up at the close of warm-ups. I kept waiting for them to do the Haka, but me and my posse ended up disappointed that all we saw were football exercises and such. Oh well.
BYU runs onto the field led by former Cougar and current Baltimore Raven Dennis Pitta. I hear Austin Collie was also at the game, but I didn't see him. Then again, I heard it after I got home, so I didn't really know to look for him.
Mike Hague and Jordan Johnson await the unleashing of the "unstoppable" SEC Speed. Were they wondering what they got themselves into?
Jake Heaps and the rest of the BYU offense take the field before the first offensive play of BYU's independence.
Scoreboard! Here is a picture of the rebuttal to any Ole Miss fan trash talk after the game (surprisingly, there was more after the game than before). I didn't really take too many pictures during the game, as I wanted to be able to enjoy myself.

Here are some more pictures after the game. Jake Heaps and Kyle Van Noy took their turns talking to BYUTV's Robbie Bullough.


Overall, a lot of fun was had by all. I remember being down 13-0 and thinking, "If we lose this game, I probably won't say a word to anyone in the car during the entire 10-hour car ride home. In a matter of 15 minutes or so, that attitude change. I'm so happy I was able to be there to witness BYU's first game as an independent.

Premature Box Score - Ole Miss: Take 2

Do you remember the old CBS show "Early Edition"? It starred Kyle Chandler, someone we've come to know as Coach Eric Taylor from NBC's "Friday Night Lights."

Anyway, the premise of this show was Chandler's character receiving the newspaper a day early. This allowed him to attempt to fix the things that went wrong during that day (somewhere Michael J. Fox is in a sleeveless coat screaming "Nooo!!!!!")

I am going to give you the box score a day or so early. What I am attempting to do is kind of the same thing as "Early Edition," although you won't be able to save BYU from anything. Oh, and also, the info you receive from runs the risk of being wildly inaccurate.

Some readers might remember me attempting to do this during the summer. I've had some time to think about the Ole Miss game some more, and I would like to tweak it...a little.

Enjoy!

BYU 31, Ole Miss 17

Passing
Heaps: 21-31 277 yards, 3 TDs

Rushing
Quezada: 18 carries, 109 yards
Di Luigi: 11 carries, 58 yards
Kariya: 8 carries, 30 yards, 1 TD

Receiving
Apo: 5 catches, 78 yards, 1 TD
Jacobson: 5 catches, 53 yards
Hoffman: 4 catches , 72 yards, 1 TD
Wilson: 2 catches, 27 yards
Holt: 2 catches, 16 yards, 1 TD
Di Luigi: 2 catches, 18 yards
Quezada 1 catch, 13 yards

Defense
Rushing yards allowed: 154 yards
Passing yards allowed: 151 yards
INTs: 1
Fumbles Forced/Recovered: 3/2

We all remember what happened when Heaps and Nelson split reps in fall camp last year. Neither QB got the preparation they both needed. As a result, neither were truly ready to begin the 2010 season.

Same deal for Ole Miss this year, except that the 1st team reps were split between three QBs. Ole Miss' starting QB Barry Brunetti was given the job last week only after Randall Mackey was arrested and subsequently suspended for the first game. Oh, and coach Houston Nutt says QB Zack Stoudt will play against BYU as well (Did anyone order a 2-QB system?). Good news.

Because of the inexperience at the QB position, Ole Miss will likely rely on Brandon Bolden, a very solid back. However, BYU's rush defense is one thing that doesn't concern me at all for 2012. With the speed of LBs like Kyle Van Noy and Uona Kaveinga, I think we'll be able to manage.

Also, Ole Miss' defense is what caused its 4-8 2010 record, and it only returns 4 starters. Two starters are lost from the secondary, and it was bad last year. This is why I had so much optimism in putting together BYU's offensive predictions. This seems like a pretty good opportunity for BYU to showcase its new offense. Kentrell Lockett returns, but after blowing out his knee last year, is it really safe to assume he'll be the same guy he was in 2009? I don't think so.

BYU and Ole Miss both had bad 2010 seasons, but BYU finished 2010 playing its best football. That can't be said about Ole Miss, and I have serious doubts about Ole Miss' ability to make vast improvements by Week One.

Feel free to leave a comment with your own prediction(s).

Cougaracity Podcast Central

Cougaracity contributors Ben Wagner, Preston Johnson, and Jake Welch got together last night and rolled tape on their thoughts on the upcoming BYU football season. Look for the PB&J Report on iTunes.

PB&J Report - BYU Preview - August 31, 2011

Also, Preston and Scott Gower join the fellas from Red Cup Rebellion on their podcast last night as well. Great guys. Give them a follow on the ol' Twitter.

Red Cup Radio - Cougaracity - August 31, 2011 (we come on at about the 23-min mark)

Bold Statements for the 2011 Season

At the start of every football season, we have the opportunity to prognosticate as to what will happen in the following months. Some BYU fans have extremely high hopes and dream of undefeated seasons and BCS glory, while others remain staunchly pessimistic, claiming we will be lucky to get 5 wins. Both parties pride themselves on bold statements.

I am a fan of bold statements but only if they are somewhat realistic. Sure, Jake Heaps has a chance at winning the Heisman, just like I have a chance at pitching in the World Series for the Phillies.

Below are a few of my bold statements concerning this season. Some of them might be a bit surprising, but they are backed by some logical though.

J.J. DiLuigi will be the most important skill player behind Jake Heaps
Ever since he came to BYU, it seems as if DiLuigi has been flying somewhat under the radar. His freshman and sophomore seasons were spent in the shadow of Harvey Unga, and last year he split time with Brian Kariya and fan-favorite Joshua Quezada. Most will forget last year he led the team in rushing AND receiving yards. He might not have the numbers he did last year, but he will be vital is the success of the offense.

It’s no secret J.J. is not the biggest guy on the field, but he makes up for it in almost every way. He has great field vision and follows his lead blockers very well. He doesn’t have breakaway speed, but he has great quickness that gives him separation when running routes. It’s these small intangibles that will allow him to make big plays. Apo, Hoffman, Quezada and others will have their time to shine, but J.J. will be the difference maker.



Brandon Ogletree will be the defensive MVP
Most BYU fan want to reserve this title for a certain USC transfer, but Ogletree will have a big year. He had a knack for making big plays last year and playing consistent every game. If he can stay healthy he will be the leader of the defense and set the tone for this inexperienced but talented squad.

Hiring Ben Cahoon was most important coaching change this offseason

BYU fans have been counting down the minutes until they can see the new offensive changes Brandon Doman will bring to the table. Having Doman at the helm will be a significant upgrade, but, most importantly, the offense will benefit from having a capable wide receivers coach. The performance of last year’s wide outs was uninspiring at best, and a lot of that had to do with the position coach Patrick Higgins. Players said he was strange and lacked the players’ respect.

With Ben Cahoon, the receivers have someone they can learn from and respect. Unlike years past, BYU’s crop of receivers are physically gifted. Hoffman has size, Jacobsen has speed and Apo has both. What they can really improve upon is their route running. Cahoon made a living in the CFL running crisp routes and creating separation. If Cahoon can teach the WRs his craft, then we should see some great improvements.



BYU will beat TCU
It would be a gross understatement to stay TCU has dominated BYU the last three seasons. The Cougars scored a measly 17 point in the three games combined. It’s just one of those situations where it seems they have our number. This year will be different.

First off, TCU won’t have the luxury of having Andy Dalton at the helm. The guy carved up our defense in his sleep. The Horned Frog offense won’t be nearly as potent this year and they will have a lot of underclassmen taking on key roles. They will be good, just not great.

Second, BYU will have an offensive coordinator not named Robert Anae. Brandon Doman will be able to game plan better for opponents than Anae, who refused to change things up depending on who they played. When playing TCU, the old OC wouldn’t account for TCU’s amazing team speed and strength. He called the same tired plays that worked against Northern Iowa but, gee golly, were ineffective, against TCU. These are finally two very different teams and BYU will have the advantage.

--Jake Welch, Cougaracity contributor
Twitter: @jraywelch

ESPN College Football Challenge

Until now, we've been advertising this solely on Twitter. This is the last week to sign up to play in the official (as opposed to the counterfeit ones you see on the web) Cougaracity ESPN College Football Challenge. Sign up by clicking on the following link:

This Link

It is basically fantasy college football, except there are no drafts. You simply pick what you consider to be the best lineup (based on weekly match-ups) in all of college football each week. For example, if Alabama is playing an FCS team one week, you might want Trent Richardson on your team. I'm just saying...

Please join and compete with other fans of BYU football. Since games start on Thursday, that's when we'll close up shop.

Boom.

Big Blue Bash Report

SALT LAKE CITY--The Salt Lake Chapter of the BYU Cougar Club hosted its sixth annual Big Blue Bash. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall did not take part in the event but wide receivers coach Ben Cahoon and senior running back Brian Kariya spoke to the Cougar faithful.

Of the topics discussed, preparation and attitude were among the most popular. Cahoon discussed the work the coaches put into improving the players' skills. Calling the film room the "war room," he said that each coach takes individual notes on their assigned positions while watching the film and they are able to email those notes directly to the media room where the receivers that have time to watch practice can see the coach's notes while watching their own film.

Cahoon did not specify what those notes consist of but it has become apparent that the wide receiver position at BYU has improved since last year when dropped passes were not uncommon.

KSL.com's "Voice of the Cougars" Greg Wrubell mention during the Big Blue Bash that, recently, BYU went three straight practices without a dropped pass. With the talent BYU has at the wide receiver position - Ross Apo and Cody Hoffman both starting - and the proper preparation going into teaching these athletes, quarterback Jake Heaps could have a stellar season.

According to running back Brian Kariya, BYU will dress for week one in a relatively different attire than past years. Kariya said that BYU will wear black cleats and socks to "represent an attitude and a new emphasis of just going out and playing with a chip on our shoulders." One of the major emphasis this year is special teams according to the senior running back.

Kariya, who is a captain of the special teams kick return unit, said, "We wanted to relate it in a way to our team that the black also represents our special teams and that's going to be the new foundation of our offense and defense and entire team." BYU returns their kick returners, Cody Hoffman and JD Falslev and it appears Falslev will return punts again this year. Junior punter Riley Stephenson returns for the Cougars and Sophomore placekicker Justin Sorensen is back from his mission and will likely be BYU's kickoff specialist as well.

Excitement is growing in Cougar Nation and the players are fueling the fire. "We're meshing as an offense and moving forward to make this one of the best seasons we've ever had," said Kariya, adding, "With the schedule we have and with the teams that we're playing, we have in mind to go out and beat them all." With week one and Ole Miss just around the corner, Cougar fans can not help but hope he is right.

--Jake Edmonds, Cougaracity Contributor
Twitter: @cougazul

5 Questions With BYU's Devin Mahina

Devin Mahina finished the 2010 season as the top receiving tight end for BYU (11 receptions, 118 yards). BYU fans are looking for one or two tight ends to separate themselves from the pack, giving BYU the tight end presence it had in years past (Pitta, Harline, George, etc.).

In the quick interview below, Mahina talks about BYU, 2010, and the upcoming season.

Q1: Why did you choose to come to Provo, and what do you like most about BYU?

I chose to come to BYU because, while football is a huge part of my decision, it's not the only factor. BYU fit all my needs perfectly. It holds its students to a higher standard, and that's something I love. I also chose it because I like how BYU uses its tight ends. I love what Bronco has done with the program.

Q2. What was 2010 like for you and the team, and how will going through what you guys did help for 2011?

I look at last season as a learning experience. We didn't do as well as we all hoped, but it helped us understand what we needed to work on and fix. Not many freshmen get as much playing time as I did, and that gives me a huge advantage for this next season and the seasons to come.

Q3. What do you think all of the coaching changes (Doman, Dupaix, Cahoon, etc.) add to the team?

Of course Bronco is only going to make changes that will benefit the team. I am really excited to work with my new position coach, Coach (Lance) Reynolds, as well as our offensive coordinator, Coach (Brandon) Doman.

Q4: How does the tight end position battle look heading into fall camp, and what do you expect from yourself this season?

There are a lot of talented guys at the tight end position, it should be really competitive. I expect a lot from myself. I expect to make an impact on the field. I expect to be someone who is looked to in clutch situations.

Q5: Who is/are the funniest guy(s) on the team, and why?

Since I spend most of my time with the tight ends, I would say a combination of Richard Wilson and Marcus Mathews. They are always cracking jokes, we have a good time together.

My Thoughts on Media Day

If you're anything like me, beside being 5'11 and named "Scott," you watched pretty much every aspect of the 2011 BYU Football Media Day. Here are a few things I took away from the day's events:

1. The Players Are Excited
Listening to the players, especially Corby Eason, talk about the upcoming season is incredibly exciting. I can't help but be excited by Eason's frequent use of the phrase "I can't wait!" in interviews. Certainly the players aren't going to say "I guess so" or "Meh" when asked if they're excited about the 2011 season, but they seem to know what they have on the team, and they're excited by it.

2. The Coach Is Excited
BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall isn't going to be confused with The Pointer Sisters, but luckily he won't be confused with Saved By The Bell's Jessie Spano. BYU fans will likely agree that Bronco just looks like a new guy lately. He talks about how independence has reinvigorated him, and I think it shows. The stresses, disappointments, and coming-together of the 2010 team was a huge bonding moment for him and the players, and I think his excitement for 2011 will rub off on everyone associated with the program.

3. The ESPN Deal Is Even Better Than We Thought
I'm not sure how many of us thought we were going to be able to watch 10 of BYU's games on the ESPN family of networks during the 2011 season, but that's what we're looking at. It'll be 11 when the team becomes bowl eligible, which I am hoping is after the 6th game (ohpleaseohpleaseohplease!). This added exposure is going to be huge. For a guy like me, who lives 1,500+ miles away from Provo, ESPN is making it A LOT easier to follow BYU football.

4. Jake Heaps on Utah State
Like pretty much anyone else reading this blog, I was enraged by the Utah State game. It wasn't just the defense playing uninspired football. It wasn't just the lack of communication/success between the QB and WRs. It wasn't just my sister betraying our family and sitting in the USU student section while wearing a USU t-shirt (she also stormed the field - SHAME!). It's all of those things. I knew I was looking forward to the 2011 game, but I wasn't sure if the players shared that same feeling.

At Media Day, when asked about the 2011 schedule, Jake Heaps said, among other things, "We want that one back" about the USU game. In most seasons, that game isn't even mentioned (Idaho State, San Jose State, New Mexico State weren't mentioned), but the fact that it was and Heaps said that about it tells me everything I need to know about the players' mentality against Utah State. Yes, BYU will absolutely destroy Utah State this year, but not just because of USU's inherent inferiority. It is because the players know that game is when they hit rock bottom in 2010. That's a game they want back, because it was the worst one they played last season. That'll stick in their minds until rectified...and it will be rectified.

5. The "Legends Roundtable" Was Awesome
Whoever came up with the idea of putting those guys (Lavell Edwards, Ty Detmer, Trevor Matich, Bryan Kehl, and the satellite appearance of Steve Young) is a genius. Even though Edwards, Detmer and Young sort of dominated the conversation, it was great because of the way they played off each other and joked around with each other. Lavell still has a fantastic sense of humor, and I hope to see stuff like this every year. Also, I wouldn't be against seeing a basketball version of this some time in the future.

6. The Fans Should Be Excited: It doesn't take an Under Armour commercial to show that you don't have a pulse if you aren't fired up for this season. Yes, the home slate kind of sucks, but that will be a short-term problem. Teams like Texas, Boise State, Notre Dame and others are definitely coming to Provo, and others are in the works. The 2011 season looks very promising for BYU, and 2012 looks even brighter.

Phil Steele with a Sportcasting Caricature

Here is Phil Steele breaking down the Mountain West Conference and Independents with a Ohio broadcaster, and he speaks highly of BYU.

But the real reason I embedded this video, besides the fact it looks like it was produced in the 1990s, was because of this ridiculous Ohio broadcaster to his left. If I didn't know better, I'd have guessed this guy was doing an exaggerated version of a local sportscaster as part of a comedy routine, but this thick, THICK Mideastern/Midwestern accent is as genuine as Mr. Steele's predictions.



Phil Steele breaks down the other conference in additional videos which can be found here.

Do We REALLY Believe Our Predictions?

Each and every member of Cougar Nation has an opinion about how BYU's football team will do in 2011. We're all excited about Jake Heaps' development, what Ross Apo will bring to the table, and the depth of the defensive front seven.

Some fans are optimistic about the Cougars, saying 11-1 or even 12-0 are likely possibilities. Others feel like about 8-4 is a good result for the first season of independence.

But...do we really believe those outcomes are the most likely ones?

To find out, we wanted to simulate the 2011 BYU football season 500 times, based on what BYU fans thought the likelihood of the Cougars coming away with a win in each of their games.

Yesterday, we went to Twitter to find out what some Cougar fans were thinking about the BYU football team's chances for 2011. We asked people to send us what they think BYU's odds - in a percentage form - of winning each game.

Granted, less than 24 hours is not a great amount of time to gather an enormous amount of opinions on Twitter - unless I was Charlie Sheen or David Archuleta - but we were able to gather 11 different Cougar fan voices, including three contributors to Cougaracity.

Here are the averages of what we got from everyone. "Fans" are those who gave us odds and don't write for Cougaracity. "Blog" are from the blog contributors. "Everyone" is a combination of the two.

Opponent	Fans	Blog	Everyone
AT Ole Miss	70%	68%	69%
AT Texas	53%	49%	52%
Utah	68%	80%	71%
UCF	69%	76%	71%
Utah St.	90%	96%	92%
San Jose St	93%	96%	94%
AT Oregon St	64%	64%	64%
Idaho State	95%	96%	95%
Vs. TCU	50%	56%	52%
Idaho	91%	93%	92%
NM St	93%	96%	94%
AT Hawaii	70%	75%	71%

Then we put each set of odds through a simulation for 500 seasons to give us a solid sample size, and below are the results with the percentage of likelihood for each outcome:

Record	Fans	Blog	Everyone
12-0 =	2.4%	2.4%	2.8%
11-1 =	12.2%	17.0%	13.8%
10-2 =	25.8%	27.6%	24.6%
9-3 =	28.2%	27.6%	30.4%
8-4 =	20.4%	16.4%	17.4%
7-5 =	8.2%	7.2%	7.2%
6-6 =	2.6%	1.2%	3.0%
5-7 =	0.2%	0.6%	0.8%

Judging by the likelihood of each outcome, unless you're thinking 10-2 or 9-3 for 2011, chances are you may not actually believe your prediction. Sure, it still is possible - unless you're thinking 4-8 or worse - but based on the odds that you provided, it's not likely.

Here are some other things we found to be pretty interesting:

1. 12-0: As much as I hope and pray for an undefeated season, based on the odds from everyone, it's more likely BYU will 6-6 or worse. The odds for 11-1 aren't bad, but 9-3 and 10-2 seem to be the winners for the most likely scenario.

2. Going Bowling: According to the results of these odds, there's a 99.2% chance of BYU going to a bowl. I know none of us really saw not going to a bowl, but it's good to see anyway.

3. Reason To Be Optimistic: After going through what we did in 2010, I don't think any of us have a right to be disappointed with at least a 9-3 regular season record, and that seems like a good possibility with 71.6% of the simulated seasons going that way.

4. Rank of Opponents: It's always interesting to know which games fans deem to be the most difficult ones. Fans believed this to be the order from difficult to easy:

1) TCU - Not surprising considering our recent history against them and how they did last year, but they lost some player and won't be 2010 TCU. Nevertheless, they'll still be good.

2) Texas - Texas has a great program and out of the teams that struggled last year, you have to think they are likely the ones that can get back quickly.

3) Oregon State - THIS surprised me. They had an awful year and lose Quizz Rodgers and others. We'll see.

4) Ole Miss - This is about where I'd have them. Not very good last year and not a lot of evidence would lead one to believe they have improved that much. Nevertheless, it's an SEC team.

5) UCF - Surprising. Yes, they had a great season, but they lost a lot of experience from last season. I don't expect them to be bad, but to expect them to be what they were is asking a lot.

6) TIE - Utah AND Hawaii - What is Utah doing down here?! Utah is a good team. I think we'll win, but do we really think so little of the Utes?! We've put UCF and Oregon State ahead of them, and we've tied them with Hawaii?! OK. Games at Hawaii are crazy, but I question that.

8) Utah State - One of the games I am most looking forward to. This was the turning point last year, and after watching the USU fans storm the field after beating a 1-4 BYU team, I am ready to watch BYU fans storm the field after DEMOLISHING USU. Utah State beat us last year, but we're still OK with Cougar fans thinking VERY little of them.

9) Idaho - Sure.

10) San Jose State - Yes.

11) New Mexico State - OK.

12) Idaho State - Only surprised they weren't lower on this list.

Thanks to @zbloxham, @JakeHatchKSL, @kugrlover, @bigbman24, @ksav07, @puttforbogey, @TPFOP, and @uncle_shep for participating. Click on them to follow on Twitter.

Also, thanks to Cougaracity contributors @smg1981, @d_anderson11, and @wisc_coug for their help as well.

***If you want to list your own odds in the comments section, we will provide you with the the likelihood of the outcomes.

Time to take Cougar Nation's temperature!

I want to know how all of you Cougar fans out there are feeling about the upcoming football season. 12-0? 11-1? 9-3? 7-6?

Give me your odds (%) for BYU to win against each of their opponents, and I will simulate 200 2011 seasons using your odds, revealing the likelihood of various outcomes for this season.

For example,

Twitter buddy @JakeHatchKSL gave me the following odds:

@ Ole Miss (75%)
@ Texas (55%)
Utah (60%)
UCF (60%)
Utah State (90%)
San Jose St. (99%)
@ Oregon St. (67%)
Idaho St. (99.9%)
TCU (50%)
Idaho (90%)
New Mexico St. (97%)
@ Hawaii (55%)

Those odds gave BYU a 40% chance of at least 10 wins in the regular season and almost certainty of going to a bowl.

Write your odds in the comments section to see what your 2011 BYU football likely scenario is!