Premature Box Score - Texas

BYU @ Texas, 7 pm ET/5 pm MT, ESPN2

Here is this week's peek into the future (prepare your mind for being blown). Daniel takes a look at what most certainly WILL happen Saturday, when the BYU Cougars meet the Texas Longhorns in Austin, Texas.

BYU 27, Texas 24

Passing:

Heaps 24-40; 3 TDs; 1 INT; 231 yards

Rushing: 

Quezada 8 carries for 39 yards, 1 TD

Di Luigi 10 carries for 42 yards

Kariya 3 carries 9 yards

Receiving:

Apo, 6 catches for 80 yards, 2 TD

Jacobson, 3 catches for 21 yards

Hoffman, 4 catches for 58 yards

Wilson, 2 catches for 18 yards

Falsley, 1 catch for 6 yards

Di Luigi, 8 catches for 48 yards, 1 TD

Defense: 

130 rush yards allowed

215 pass yards allowed

1 INT

1/1 Fumbles Forced/Recovered

We don’t exactly have a huge sample size from which to draw, but after week one, this is without doubt the most accurate predictive box score on the internet.

Let’s take you through how we derived these numbers. First we made some assumptions:

Assumption 1: Texas looked a little sharper than Ole Miss did on opening weekend, with more offensive weapons and a quarterback, junior Garrett Gilbert, with a full season under his belt. Don’t expect quite the same dominant defensive performance from the Cougars.

Assumption 2: The BYU offense will be facing more defensive speed in Texas, but surely won’t be playing under the weight of so much rust. Di Luigi’s high reception numbers reflect Heaps’ perhaps too frequent reliance on checking all the way down to J.J. in downfield situations. But look for the Cougs to start spreading the field vertically and hitting deep targets Apo and Hoffman with more frequency.

(Receiving corps side note: During BYU's fourth quarter touchdown drive against Mississippi, they kept the drive going by hitting McKay Jacobson over the middle. With his speed, he outran linebackers and turned it up field to move the chains. Traditionally, Jacobson has almost exclusively been a deep threat—running fly routes and getting overthrown by a shaky freshman Jake Heaps until BYU basically abandoned the play altogether. My question: Why don’t they utilize him more midfield like they did this past Saturday? Jacobson can burn linebackers over the middle and Heaps and can place the ball with enough spice to help him avoid getting get laid out. Get to work on this, BYU--this first one is free.)

BYU’s offense looked thoroughly West Coast. This isn’t necessarily good or bad. Heaps is going to have to settle in to make the scheme work—a lot depends on hitting his men in stride and being opportunistic with downfield opportunities. Here’s hoping those opportunities come more frequently. Heaps has too much talent to basically play four to six yards down the field for 70 percent of the game.

The defense still plays a solid game, forcing two turnovers by the Longhorn offense. However, the secondary was aided by the Ole Miss WRs' inability to make big plays. Might not be the case against the Longhorns. A trick play here, maybe some blown coverage there, and Texas is in this until clock gets to 0:00.

Premature Box Score - Ole Miss: Take 2

Do you remember the old CBS show "Early Edition"? It starred Kyle Chandler, someone we've come to know as Coach Eric Taylor from NBC's "Friday Night Lights."

Anyway, the premise of this show was Chandler's character receiving the newspaper a day early. This allowed him to attempt to fix the things that went wrong during that day (somewhere Michael J. Fox is in a sleeveless coat screaming "Nooo!!!!!")

I am going to give you the box score a day or so early. What I am attempting to do is kind of the same thing as "Early Edition," although you won't be able to save BYU from anything. Oh, and also, the info you receive from runs the risk of being wildly inaccurate.

Some readers might remember me attempting to do this during the summer. I've had some time to think about the Ole Miss game some more, and I would like to tweak it...a little.

Enjoy!

BYU 31, Ole Miss 17

Passing
Heaps: 21-31 277 yards, 3 TDs

Rushing
Quezada: 18 carries, 109 yards
Di Luigi: 11 carries, 58 yards
Kariya: 8 carries, 30 yards, 1 TD

Receiving
Apo: 5 catches, 78 yards, 1 TD
Jacobson: 5 catches, 53 yards
Hoffman: 4 catches , 72 yards, 1 TD
Wilson: 2 catches, 27 yards
Holt: 2 catches, 16 yards, 1 TD
Di Luigi: 2 catches, 18 yards
Quezada 1 catch, 13 yards

Defense
Rushing yards allowed: 154 yards
Passing yards allowed: 151 yards
INTs: 1
Fumbles Forced/Recovered: 3/2

We all remember what happened when Heaps and Nelson split reps in fall camp last year. Neither QB got the preparation they both needed. As a result, neither were truly ready to begin the 2010 season.

Same deal for Ole Miss this year, except that the 1st team reps were split between three QBs. Ole Miss' starting QB Barry Brunetti was given the job last week only after Randall Mackey was arrested and subsequently suspended for the first game. Oh, and coach Houston Nutt says QB Zack Stoudt will play against BYU as well (Did anyone order a 2-QB system?). Good news.

Because of the inexperience at the QB position, Ole Miss will likely rely on Brandon Bolden, a very solid back. However, BYU's rush defense is one thing that doesn't concern me at all for 2012. With the speed of LBs like Kyle Van Noy and Uona Kaveinga, I think we'll be able to manage.

Also, Ole Miss' defense is what caused its 4-8 2010 record, and it only returns 4 starters. Two starters are lost from the secondary, and it was bad last year. This is why I had so much optimism in putting together BYU's offensive predictions. This seems like a pretty good opportunity for BYU to showcase its new offense. Kentrell Lockett returns, but after blowing out his knee last year, is it really safe to assume he'll be the same guy he was in 2009? I don't think so.

BYU and Ole Miss both had bad 2010 seasons, but BYU finished 2010 playing its best football. That can't be said about Ole Miss, and I have serious doubts about Ole Miss' ability to make vast improvements by Week One.

Feel free to leave a comment with your own prediction(s).

Premature Box Score Prediction: BYU at Ole Miss

In order to fill up some space in this blog during the summer, I thought I would throw out some predictions for the upcoming football season, and I definitely welcome your predictions - negative or positive. This prediction is for the opening game in Oxford, Miss., on September 3.

BYU 42, Ole Miss 20

Passing
Heaps: 24-34, 318 yards, 3 TDs

Rushing
Quezada: 18 carries, 109 yards, 1 TD
Di Luigi: 11 carries, 58 yards
Kariya: 8 carries, 30 yards, 2 TDs

Receiving
Apo: 6 catches, 125 yards, 1 TD
Jacobson: 6 catches, 53 yards
Hoffman: 5 catches , 82 yards, 1 TD
Mahina: 2 catches, 19 yards
Di Luigi: 2 catches, 18 yards
Kariya: 2 catches, 8 yards, 1 TD
Quezada 1 catch, 13 yards

Defense
Rushing yards allowed: 103 yards
Passing yards allowed: 181 yards
INTs: 1
Fumbles Forced/Recovered: 3/2

I think this game would definitely be different if it was played three or four weeks later, but for now, Ole Miss has a heck of a lot more unanswered questions than BYU. For example, the Rebels still haven't selected a starting QB yet, and it's between three possible QBs. With a new offensive coordinator, the last thing Ole Miss needs is a guy under center that didn't have the majority of the reps in fall camp. But that's what they are going to get unless they pick a started EARLY in fall camp. They'll have to rely on RBs, and BYU's rushing defense is one thing I am not worried about.

Also, Ole Miss' defense is what caused its 4-8 2010 record, and it only returns 4 starters. Two starters are lost from the secondary, and it was bad last year. This is why I had so much optimism in putting together BYU's offensive predictions. This seems like a pretty good opportunity for BYU to showcase its new offense.

BYU and Ole Miss both had bad 2010 seasons, but BYU finished 2010 playing its best football. That can't be said about Ole Miss, and I have serious doubts about Ole Miss' ability to make vast improvements by Week One.

Feel free to leave a comment with your own prediction(s).