Utah State Predictions

Here are the Cougaracity predictions for tonight's game. It's almost time!

Jake (@BYUAllBlue)
Just like last year, this could be the turning point for the BYU. The big difference this year is that BYU is set to play two ranked opponents following their meeting with USU. A win here could give them some momentum going into those games and a loss would almost guarantee a losing record in the month of October for Cougars. There is a lot more on the line in this game than just in-state bragging rights.

Taysom Hill should get the start and will probably struggle. If I were USU I would stack the box with 8 guys and force Taysom to beat me with his arm. A few deep passes to one of the twin towers and that should open things up a bit. He will get things going later in the game but I'm not expecting a giant offensive output. The defense will also look a little venerable as the Aggies will move the ball up and down the field but will have to settle for field goals. In the end a David Foote touchdown will be the difference.

BYU 21, USU 13

Steve (@steve_pierce)
While I have tentatively picked the Cougars to come out on top in this one, you could easily sell me on the score being reversed. Let's be clear: the Aggies are for real. They can play some ball, and Chuckie Keaton is unquestionably the best quarterback in the state. However, he's also about to line up against one of the best defenses in the country, which is why I'm giving BYU an ever-so-slight edge tonight.

I expect the offense to remain a problem, regardless of who starts at quarterback. If it's Taysom Hill, the outcome should be slightly better and give the Cougar defense a little more breathing room. The kid just has a flair for extending plays with his legs and getting first downs, which should at least keep the offense on the field for a bit. If Riley Nelson makes his return to the lineup, it's likely that he will still be less than 100 percent and will essentially be functioning purely on his trademark "grit and determination." While both those qualities are great in the abstract, they don't necessarily add up to a great on-field performance -- something Cougar fans are abundantly aware of by now.

If Taysom is under center, I feel mildly OK about this prediction. If it's a still-hobbled Riley... Well, let's just say that all bets are off.

BYU 21, USU 17

Scott (@smg1981)
I'm pretty optimistic about this game. Growing up outside of Provo or Logan or even Utah, I never realized how much Utah State fans disliked BYU. I knew BYU and Utah were rivals, but I didn't even know Utah State was supposed to be a rival. However, these last few years or so have shown me Utah State doesn't like BYU or even me and my fellow BYU-fan friends.

Utah State is an improved program. They've shown us that over the last two seasons. While I would love to get back to the days when BYU would absolutely destroy the Aggies, it's probably not going to happen this year. However, I don't think it will be as close as everybody seems to think.

Utah State's defense is good, but the offenses they've played are not. If Taysom Hill is the QB tonight and he's throwing the ball more, BYU will be the best offense the Aggies have face all year. We saw last year what mobile QB did against USU. Tonight we will see what a super-mobile QB can do.

Utah State's offense is good, but BYU's defense is considerably better. Chuckie Keeton struggled against Colorado St in both 2011 and 2012. He also struggled against BYU last year, and I have no reason to believe Bronco won't be able to stop Keeton again.

BYU 27, USU 13

Preston (@prestonvjohnson)
With word coming in that the mighty Taysom Hill will be starting at QB for the Cougars tonight in Provo, I'm a little more optimistic about BYU scoring some points. The Utah St. offense will be the best the BYU defense has faced this year. Having held their opponent scoreless for 8 straight quarters against Boise St. and Hawaii, the BYU defense will have a different animal to tackle in Chuckie Keeton. I expect a close game the entire way, but can we really trust a true freshman making his second start ever at QB (does Hawaii even count???) and a 17 year-old starting at RB for the Cougars? The youth always have the close one they let get away, then learn from them for the future. Tonight is that game, unfortunately.

Utah St. 24, BYU 21

Cougaracity Predictions: Boise State

Scott Gower (@smg1981)

Even after three weeks into the season, we still don't know what we have in BYU, but, additionally, we don't what we have in Boise State. Boise State played a very close game against Michigan State, considered a top-10 or top-15 team by many. However, both teams were breaking in a new QB and neither offense looked good. In fact, both offenses look very sloppy. Both defenses, on the other hand, filled the stat sheet, but because the offenses were so bad, it is hard to tell if it was because the defenses were actually good.

Since them, Michigan State beat up on Central Michigan, and then got beat up by Notre Dame (and we don't know how good ND really is either). Boise State had a week off and played Miami (OH) last weekend. The Broncos struggled early, but ended up winning by a sizable margin after Southwick and Harper got going.

BYU's defense is much better than Miami's, especially on the run defense. I don't believe there's any chance Harper runs for half as much as he did against Miami, so Boise St. will have to rely on Southwick, and I'm not sure that will work out very well for the orange and blue. Since the offenses of Michigan State and Miami (OH) are nothing to write home about, we'll see how good Boise St.'s defense really is, but I'm guessing it's not as good as Utah's, so I think we'll be able to move the ball somewhat better than Saturday night showed.

BYU 27, Boise St. 20

Jake Welch (@BYUAllBlue)

Since the ball bounced the other way so many times last game, let's hope that odds are in our favor today. Joe Southwick didn't inspire in the opener but performed as expected against Miami of Ohio. If Riley can stay healthy and the defense can contain D.J. Harper then we have a good shot at stealing this ball game. If both of those things can happen is unknown. It's hard to gauge the morale of team after Saturday's game. I feel like they have some fuel in the tank. Also, just for the record, I'd much rather have Riley's corpse play QB over just about anybody.

BYU - Weber St. Predictions

Jake Welch (@jraywelch) (1-0)

As much as I would love for BYU to beat by an ungodly margin, Bronco Mendenhall made it pretty clear this week that won't happen on his watch. When asked about OkState''s shellacking of Savannah State, Bronco said that should never happen. That being said this will be a moderate drubbing of the Wildcats. Expect to see a very vanilla offense with a lot of running between the tackles. Here's to hoping that Taysom Hill and James Lark will be getting a good number of reps in garbage time, which should start sometime in the 3rd quarter. I'm really high on the defense after last weeks stellar performance but for some reason I foresee a trick play going the distance for Weber State. But they won't be getting much else as BYU rolls.

BYU 42, WSU 10

Scott Gower (@smg1981) (1-0)

This one won't be close. In fact, it is possible BYU might find a way to score even before the game officially starts. (Don't ask me how.) I don't want starters playing very much at all. If BYU is up by 35+ points, the backups need to come in. The next game is very important, and there is no sense in risking injuries players we need on the field to have a chance at beating Utah. I expect a lot of James Lark and Taysom Hill in the second half. The defense is great, but I don't know how much the starters will actually be playing, so I can't predict a shutout. In fact, I think Weber St. scores a touchdown, accomplishing something the Mike Leach-coached Washington State Cougars could not. 

Bronco didn't like the 84-0 OK St. win last weekend, but make no mistake about it, BYU will destroy Weber St. It just won't come close to 84-0.

BYU 56, Weber St. 7

Daniel Anderson (@d_anderson11) (1-0)

BYU 56, Weber State 17

Prediction? Pain.

Preston Johnson (@prestonvjohnson) (1-0)
BYU 52, Weber St. 10I think BYU's defense will shut down Weber St. much like they did last week versus Washington St. I expect some second and third stringers to get a shot in the fourth quarter and see a Weber St. score late. As much as I would like to analyze this game further I think we all are just anxious for next week...

Zach Bloxham (@zbloxham)Weber State AlumWeber State improved measurably from the first half to the second half in its opening week game against Fresno State. It would be a boon to the FCS program to play one of its own in Week 2. Not so easy. Weber has the nigh impossible task of trying to beat BYU in order secure its first win against an FBS school since 1993. Not going to happen. BYU's offensive line was MEH in Week 1 against Washington State. Look for the BYU to run the ball and run the ball some more against the Weber State defensive front. Will the success be fool's gold? We will find out next week when BYU travels to Salt Lake City.

The BYU defense was absolutely tremendous against Washington State. With Weber's inability to run the ball against Fresno, and BYU's talented front seven, the Wildcats will have to wait until next week to find any semblance of an running game. Weber QB Mike Hoke is talented and may be able to make some plays between the 20's, but I just don't see tWSU finding an offensive groove on Saturday. Hoke will be under pressure all afternoon long. Weber State nearly (and should have) beaten both Wyoming and Colorado State over the past five years. Unfortunately for Weber fans, this Wildcat team is not as talented; and this BYU team is destined for a big year. Don't fret, Weber grads/fans, the check is already in the mail.

BYU 48, Weber St. 6

Cougaracity Game Predictions: Wash St. @ BYU

Game day is upon us, and it's time for our picks for the game tonight, so let's do this:

Preston Johnson (@prestonvjohnson)
Washington St. goes to Provo to take on BYU this Thursday in the season opener. Washington St. has a new, familiar coach in Mike Leach taking over the squad. We all know his offensive mind should help the Washington St. offense grow and improve... eventually. Right now, however, in the very first game of the season with a new coach, on the road, against a tough BYU defense, I don't expect that Washington St. will be able to recreate that firepower that Leach consistently showed us at Texas Tech. Senior Jeff Tuel is the strength of the offense at QB, but he has young talent surrounding him at WR and it will probably take some time before they are firing on all cylinders. The Washington St. defense has recently switched to a 3-4 due to the lack of talent on the defensive line and I expect BYU to exploit that. BYU should rush for 200+ yards and control the ball for the majority of the game. Final prediction: BYU 38, WSU 17

Jake Welch (@jraywelch)
I would love for this to be the barn burner that everything thinks this game might be but the first game of the season is always a little slow out of the gate. The first few series will yield few points and both teams will have miscues. After a Riley Nelson interception that will lead to the entire west side of the stands calling for Taysom Hill, BYU will bounce back and have a 14-10 lead at half. BYU will hold the lead and the "Air Raid" offense won't fully click for the Cougars in red. Final Prediction: BYU 28, WSU 17

BOLD STATEMENT: Watch for really weird things on special teams. I'm not going to say what exactly, but watch out for them.

Scott Gower (@smg1981)
Even though Washington State has spent recent seasons in the cellar of the Pac-10/12, I've heard a lot about the other Cougars' offense. Their offense was actually good, and they went out and got one of the best offensive minds in Mike Leach. He's a great coach and all, but how much could he possibly improve an offense - by Week 1, mind you - that was already good last year? My guess is not much. It's a complicated offense that takes time to master. And as good as their offense is, I think BYU's defense is better. And BYU's offense? Much better than WSU's defense. Our offense isn't typically explosive during the first game of the season, but it will get the job done. I think the running game will play a larger role than people think. In fact, we might semi-rely on it to get the offense going. Final Prediction: BYU 34, WSU 20

Daniel Anderson (@d_anderson11)
BYU beats the Mike Leach-led Cougars, 27-17. Leach, offensive wizard that he is, hasn't had enough time to get things going well enough to overcome BYU's stout defense. My guess is that Mike Leach forgot there was a thing called defense, and BYU, despite significant rust, is able to move the ball on Riley Nelson's sheer force of will. Alisa will score, Nelson will score, and Cody Hoffman will have touchdowns. Kyle Van Noy will grind the bones of Washington State running back Carl Winston to make his bread.

Steve Pierce (@steve_pierce, @postjimmer)
Based on recent history, this is a pretty optimistic prediction. After all, remember what we were all saying at this time last year? ("Jake Heaps has had a full summer as the starter. The offense is going to be ridiculous. We're going to hang 50 on Ole Miss.") The fact of the matter is, BYU has developed a nasty habit of starting sloppy (with a few exceptions) in the Mendenhall era. And for some strange reason, I'm actively deciding to ignore all that precedent with this prediction.

I do think that Wazzu will be able to score some points and have some success with their new "Air Raid" system. They have talented receivers and a solid quarterback, and they'll chuck it enough times to break open some big plays against a still-unproven Cougar secondary. However, this will still be their first game under Mike Leach and there will likely be several kinks to be ironed out, which should limit their effectiveness -- not to mention that BYU's front seven should wreak absolute havoc in the backfield and in the flats. They'll have to throw it deep, and they will -- I just don't believe they're quite ready to do it consistently enough.

On the other side of the ball, I'm choosing to believe in Riley Nelson and Company. There's simply too much depth and talent at the receiver position for Wazzu to realistically bottle up BYU's passing game, and if the running backs can establish themselves early as well, look out. I simply don't believe the Pullman Cougs will be good enough defensively to contain what should be an athletic, experienced, and much more self-assured BYU offense in its second year under the leadership of Nelson and Brandon Doman. And if Leach's "Air Raid' isn't quite off the ground yet, that should result in a win (albeit possibly a close one) for our guys. Final Prediction: BYU 34, Washington State 28

Wash St @ BYU: The WSU Football Blog Prediction

Hello all, LucasCoug from WSU Football Blog here. Man, I cannot believe game day is almost upon us.

I really think this BYU game is going to serve as a huge measuring stick for how much the program has changed under Leach in just 9 short months. While it's tough to peg this game as a must win for our post season aspirations, given how daunting our schedule becomes in weeks 7-12, we truly need to make it that far with a minimum 4 wins.

BYU won ten games in 2011 and returns plenty of starters this year. That being said, their 2011 opponents had a combined 90 losses last year, and even with lots of returning players from a double digit win campaign, they clearly aren't thought of too highly from a national perspective as they didn't tally a single vote in the pre-season polls.

Conventional wisdom says whichever team wins 2 of 3 phases in a football game (Offense, Defense, STs), should win most match-ups. I think we have them beat on Offense and they have us beat on Defense. Word out of Provo is BYU had to have open try-outs on campus recently because of an injury to their Kicker. Couple that with solid production from Furney and Bowlin, and I have us winning this phase of the game.

Lastly, let's consider coaching staffs as the XFactor. While at New Mexico as DCoord, Bronco Mendenhall and the Lobos lost to Leach/TTU all three times they squared off by a combined score of something like 125-30.

Wazzu 38 - CTRBYULDS 24

Player of the Game: Logan Mayes

BYU 2012: Season Predictions

Daniel Anderson (@d_anderson11)
2012 Prediction: 9-3

Offensive Player of the Year NOT Named Riley Nelson
Cody Hoffman will continue to flourish as Riley Nelson's deep threat. Athletic enough and strong enough to pull in those lofty floaters that Nelson loves throwing.

Defensive Player of the Year NOT Named Kyle Van Noy
Brandon Ogletree, because he plays with a the fire of 1,000 suns.

Thoughts on 2012
This predicting the season business always seems so funny to me—what, exactly, are we basing our predictions on? Plus: did any of us see Jake Heaps’ meltdown coming from even two miles away last season? The kid looked, top to bottom, to be the best quarterback in the stable during the offseason when (and this is really important) he wasn’t getting hit all the time by large human beings. Full contact in the season seemed to change him for the worse. And Riley Nelson, who almost seems to enjoy the hits, the bigger the better, flourished under center.

So, apart from a (sort of meaningless) win-loss prediction (which, since you asked: 9-3 with losses to Boise State, Georgia Tech, and either Notre Dame or Utah, but I think we win one of those last two), I’d like to focus on some other types of pending developments this year:

1. Cody Hoffman will blossom into BYU’s next Austin Collie. It's clear he's Nelson's favorite target, and I'm guessing he leads recievers in TDs this year also.

2. In addition to routinely drinking hot marrow from the bones of various offenses this year, Kyle Van Noy will (again) single-handedly win BYU one or two games.

3. Sometime, possibly early in the season, Riley Nelson will become concussed. This will undoubtedly happen on like some 1st and 5 or 2nd and 4 where a play breaks and instead of sliding he launches head first into a linebacker trying to move the chains.  He’ll get up, remove his helmet, do some head banging, incite the crowd, and then pass out. James Lark, get ready. Also for Riley, I predict a departure from the long, golden locks and a return to the Iceman from Top Gun look he sported while backing up Heaps after his shoulder surgery in 2010. You heard it here first.

4. After BYU begins the season 4-0 by upsetting #24 Boise State, their highly passionate, yet knowledgeably inadequate fans (you know who you are), will begin calling for BCS consideration. Irate with the lack of respect afforded BYU, these same fans will be overcome with disbelief when the Cougars lose the following week in Hawaii. And then they’ll make a new instructional video about how to cheer at BYU football games.

Jake Welch (@jraywelch)
2012 Prediction: 9-3


Offensive Player of the Year NOT Named Riley Nelson
Iona Pritchard. I've always had a love for the fullback position because they are glorified lineman but trust me when I say that Iona is deserving of this title. It might not be highly visible to the untrained eye but he will be crucial in run blocking and providing a reliable outlet for Riley in the passing game.


Defensive Player of the Year NOT Named Kyle Van Noy

Daniel Sorensen. Homeboy can law down the law but he struggled mightily when it came to pass defense on play action and double moves (see last year's TCU game). With one season of mistakes and miscues behind him, Daniel is ready to take it to the next level and not only be the enforcer in the secondary but also be the leader.


Thoughts on 2012
This team might be one of the most balanced that Bronco has fielded in his tenure. The offense might not be as explosive and the defense not as stout up front but on both sides of the ball their are guys that can consistently make plays. Some fans would prefer to have a high-octane offense that will move the ball at will or a defense that's tough as nails but as a BYU fan I will take balance and consistency.

A key indicator of how well BYU will do this season is the level of intelligence of one Riley Nelson. If Riley is smart (throws with his feet set, doesn't hold the ball like a loaf of bread, take a sack instead of floating a pick-6) then this team is 10+ win material. If he in any part stupid (takes on 250 lbs linebackers head on, tries to throw more the 40 yards down field) then seven wins might be more realistic. People love to talk about the maturity of Riley and his grit. Let's hope that his grit matches his IQ.

At the end of the season, this might look like one of BYU's sexiest defenses. The key for the defense this year will be the play of the defensive line. If they do their job and take up space and multiple blockers then the linebacking core that everyone is gushing over will have space to make plays. Let's hope that the big fellas up front can stay healthy and make it happen.

In all, this will be a good team across the board. If they can play beyond their abilities then they might surprise us but when all is said and done we will get the same result that we've had in seasons past.

Preston Johnson (@prestonvjohnson)
2012 Prediction: 9-3

Offensive Player of the Year NOT Named Riley Nelson
Michael Alisa. He will be the first 1,000 yard rusher BYU has had since Harvey Unga.

Defensive Player of the Year NOT Named Kyle Van Noy
I was looking forward to putting O'Neil Chambers in this spot, but unfortunately for all of us BYU fans he was released and did not make the team this year. I will have to slide to my next pick who is Brandon Ogletree. He led the team in tackles last season I only expect him to do more of the same. It is going to be very hard for opposing teams to run against this BYU defense this season.

Thoughts on 2012
I am actually fairly optimistic about this season for the BYU Cougars. I think the offense will be much more consistent with a true QB1 and an entire off-season to work together, and I think the run game will be much improved with Michael Alisa now heading the show with some experience under his belt. The defense this season could be one of BYU's best we have seen in the last decade with a strong front 7 and a secondary that even Bronco himself called the most talented and athletic he has ever had.

Unfortunately for the Cougars, they play their toughest 4 games all on the road and in two sequences of back-to-back games beginning with at Utah week 3 and at Boise St. just 5 days later in a Thursday night game. Later in the season they play at Notre Dame just to follow it up with a game at Georgia Tech. I think BYU will take care of business at home this year and win the easy games on the road, but I think they would be lucky to take splits in each of these two back-to-back road nightmares.

While I would like to say the Cougars finish 10-2 this season going into the bowl game, I just don't think that BYU will be able to win these marquee games on the road.

Steve Pierce (@steve_pierce)
Post-Jimmer (@postjimmer)

2012 Prediction: 10-2, optimistically. Losses to Utah and Notre Dame on the road, close wins over Boise State and Georgia Tech. However, this could easily slide to 8-4 with a few bad injuries.

Offensive Player of the Year NOT Named Riley Nelson
Cody Hoffman, because he is an unstoppable, touchdown-catching machine that destroys opposing defenses like the Terminator.

Defensive Player of the Year NOT Named Kyle Van Noy
Daniel Sorenson, because if this defense is really going to take the next step to elite status, the secondary will be the key -- and Sorenson will be leading that unit with Andrew Rich-esque intensity and intelligence.

Thoughts on 2012
I'm not one of those BYU football nuts. Don't get me wrong: I like BYU football a lot. I never miss a game. But I'm not one of those people who pays $20 a month to subscribe to recruiting websites or wants to talk about the depth chart in mid-May. I'm a basketball guy, and football is simply an enjoyable diversion until they open up the Marriott Center in October. In fact, if you would have asked me a week ago, I would have told you I wasn't really that excited about the beginning of football season, that it was just another day to me, just something else to watch on TV. But now it's here. It's tomorrow. And I won't lie to you -- I'm actually pretty excited. Now that we're talking about concrete games and weekly matchups rather than abstract concepts and breathless speculation about the life choices of 16-year-old kids, I am all in on this team.

I feel like this could be a special year and a special team, at least relative to recent BYU standards. Will they win a national championship, or even go to a BCS game? No. Will they win 10 games again? Maybe. But those context-free benchmarks do not a special season make. To be sure, they can definitely help -- a lot -- but I won't necessarily be disappointed if the Cougars finish only 9-3 or 8-4. It will all depend on the context. What matters most to me is how they rise to the challenge of replacing several key players and how they respond to an increased quality of competition this season. If they notch some impressive wins over tough opponents, I'll forgive a few losses in tight games to respectable foes. If they show they can compete at a consistently high level on a weekly basis, putting a product on the field that I can be proud of, then I'll probably gloss over the weeks where they didn't quite measure up. Obviously I'd prefer they win them all -- but if that's our standard for satisfaction (as I fear it frequently is in Cougar Nation), we're going to be perpetually disappointed for years to come. Perfection may prove elusive, but context can set us free.

I am hopeful when it comes to this team. I am excited to see what Riley Nelson can do with a full summer under his belt as the unquestioned starter, and intrigued to see how much brilliance he can continue squeeze out of his admittedly limited set of physical tools. I love everything about this year's receiving corps and, if Riley can stay healthy and the line can give him time in the pocket, we could be looking at some big time production through the air -- which, as any good BYU fan knows, is exactly how we like it. On the other side of the ball, though there are some holes to fill, I feel like this may be the most athletically gifted Cougar defense in a long time, maybe ever. Kyle Van Noy will obviously be electrifying to watch on every single play, and his linebacker brethren will likely remain the rock-solid foundation of Bronco's schemes, but I am most intrigued by the secondary. Every year we seem to hear that this is the year that BYU will have a great secondary, only to be underwhelmed when the chips are down. We heard similar pronouncements out of fall camp this year -- only this time, I may actually be starting to believe them.

All in all, I'm ready to go, and I'm optimistic that -- given proper expectations and context -- this could wind up as a very satisfying football season. And I wouldn't have told you that a week ago.

Scott Gower (@smg1981)

2012 Prediction: 10-2

Offensive Player of the Year NOT Named Riley Nelson
Cody Hoffman. Other players will have good years, but I'm not being honest with myself if I pick anyone else.

Defensive Player of the Year NOT Named Kyle Van Noy
Eathyn Manumaleuna, and it's not just because I wanted to type out his name. Besides, I copy and pasted it. Ever since the blocked field goal in the Las Vegas Bowl, I've been so impressed with him. I think the defensive line is one of the questions for this team, but Manumaleuna will answer it.

Thoughts on 2012
I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say I am the most optimistic member of this panel. Every year I do this to myself. I listen to the offseason hype and get excited. "New training program! Most talented team ever! Everything's clicking! The team doesn't even NEED any more practices!" I fall for it every year, so 10-2 is me trying to contain myself, trying to be more "realistic."

The fact is there isn't a game on this schedule that BYU absolutely can't win - not that will win, but they can. There are 8 games I think BYU will definitely win. It just comes down to Utah, Boise St., Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech. Because of its huge losses, I like our chances against Boise State, and I think BYU can win ONE of the remaining three. However, I don't know which one.

I'm excited to see what kind of QB Riley Nelson can be when he's given the vast majority of reps in practice. I think if he can stay healthy and avoid making the throws that make it look like he's playing 500, Nelson will have a very memorable senior season, and everyone around him will benefit. The defense is the defense, and it will give us a chance to win every game.

Roundtable Predictions: This Weekend + This Season

Predictions: BYU vs. Ole Miss

Preston:
BYU 27 Ole Miss 20 - BYU gets off to a fast start and jumps to an early lead while the Rebels settle in during the 2nd half and push BYU down to the wire... big defensive stop late on the final drive seals the win for the Cougars.

Ben W:
Ole Miss 20, BYU 17 - with BYU missing a last minute FG to tie the game.

Daniel:
BYU 24, Ole Miss 21 - Really can't be sure on opening day, but Mississippi and BYU represent two teams heading opposite directions at the end of last season. Gotta go with the trend.

Scott:
BYU 31, Ole Miss 17 - Two teams that ended last year going in different directions. Read more from Scott

Jake:
BYU 28, Ole Miss 24 - It will be a slow first half but both offenses will come alive late in the game. Ole Miss will have a few big running plays but won't be able to match Jake Heaps' consistent passing attack. Look for special teams to play a big role in the game.

Predictions: 2011

Jake:
10-2
That seems to be a typical Bronco Mendenhall record. The Cougars will drop a road games in Austin and then lose again against a solid UCF team. The big games this season will be on the road against Oregon State and TCU. Both will be hard fought battles and both will be Cougar victories.

Ben W:
7-5
BYU gets off the season right with a win against Ole miss, but then struggles and loses to UT, Utah, UCF, TCU, and Hawaii. Heaps will have one injury that will keep him out a few games which will be a huge blow to the cougars. BYU does close out the season strongly, winning their bowl game.

Preston:
8-4
I think that the Cougars will be amped enough to open the season in Mississippi and get the win this Saturday, but when they go down to Texas to take on the Longhorns and then later TCU in Dallas, I think that BYU will drop both of those games. That leaves us with tough games against Utah, Central Florida, Hawaii away, and Oregon St. As well as we have played against Oregon St. in the past, I do not think that we can chalk this up as a win just yet. Playing Hawaii on the road is a tough task for any team. Anyone that has followed the rivalry game knows that anything can happen when it comes to BYU/Utah. I see BYU losing two of these "toss up" games along with the losses in Austin and Dallas to finish a solid season at 8-4.

Scott:
11-1
My prediction is so awesome. I look at the schedule, and it has a lot of great programs. But those programs are not exactly playing at their highest level right now (#understatements). BYU's 2010 season served as a reminder that nothing comes easy, and with the added players, experience, and coaching, this team should be favored in almost every game. Frankly, I talked myself out of 12-0.

Bold Statements for the 2011 Season

At the start of every football season, we have the opportunity to prognosticate as to what will happen in the following months. Some BYU fans have extremely high hopes and dream of undefeated seasons and BCS glory, while others remain staunchly pessimistic, claiming we will be lucky to get 5 wins. Both parties pride themselves on bold statements.

I am a fan of bold statements but only if they are somewhat realistic. Sure, Jake Heaps has a chance at winning the Heisman, just like I have a chance at pitching in the World Series for the Phillies.

Below are a few of my bold statements concerning this season. Some of them might be a bit surprising, but they are backed by some logical though.

J.J. DiLuigi will be the most important skill player behind Jake Heaps
Ever since he came to BYU, it seems as if DiLuigi has been flying somewhat under the radar. His freshman and sophomore seasons were spent in the shadow of Harvey Unga, and last year he split time with Brian Kariya and fan-favorite Joshua Quezada. Most will forget last year he led the team in rushing AND receiving yards. He might not have the numbers he did last year, but he will be vital is the success of the offense.

It’s no secret J.J. is not the biggest guy on the field, but he makes up for it in almost every way. He has great field vision and follows his lead blockers very well. He doesn’t have breakaway speed, but he has great quickness that gives him separation when running routes. It’s these small intangibles that will allow him to make big plays. Apo, Hoffman, Quezada and others will have their time to shine, but J.J. will be the difference maker.



Brandon Ogletree will be the defensive MVP
Most BYU fan want to reserve this title for a certain USC transfer, but Ogletree will have a big year. He had a knack for making big plays last year and playing consistent every game. If he can stay healthy he will be the leader of the defense and set the tone for this inexperienced but talented squad.

Hiring Ben Cahoon was most important coaching change this offseason

BYU fans have been counting down the minutes until they can see the new offensive changes Brandon Doman will bring to the table. Having Doman at the helm will be a significant upgrade, but, most importantly, the offense will benefit from having a capable wide receivers coach. The performance of last year’s wide outs was uninspiring at best, and a lot of that had to do with the position coach Patrick Higgins. Players said he was strange and lacked the players’ respect.

With Ben Cahoon, the receivers have someone they can learn from and respect. Unlike years past, BYU’s crop of receivers are physically gifted. Hoffman has size, Jacobsen has speed and Apo has both. What they can really improve upon is their route running. Cahoon made a living in the CFL running crisp routes and creating separation. If Cahoon can teach the WRs his craft, then we should see some great improvements.



BYU will beat TCU
It would be a gross understatement to stay TCU has dominated BYU the last three seasons. The Cougars scored a measly 17 point in the three games combined. It’s just one of those situations where it seems they have our number. This year will be different.

First off, TCU won’t have the luxury of having Andy Dalton at the helm. The guy carved up our defense in his sleep. The Horned Frog offense won’t be nearly as potent this year and they will have a lot of underclassmen taking on key roles. They will be good, just not great.

Second, BYU will have an offensive coordinator not named Robert Anae. Brandon Doman will be able to game plan better for opponents than Anae, who refused to change things up depending on who they played. When playing TCU, the old OC wouldn’t account for TCU’s amazing team speed and strength. He called the same tired plays that worked against Northern Iowa but, gee golly, were ineffective, against TCU. These are finally two very different teams and BYU will have the advantage.

--Jake Welch, Cougaracity contributor
Twitter: @jraywelch

Do We REALLY Believe Our Predictions?

Each and every member of Cougar Nation has an opinion about how BYU's football team will do in 2011. We're all excited about Jake Heaps' development, what Ross Apo will bring to the table, and the depth of the defensive front seven.

Some fans are optimistic about the Cougars, saying 11-1 or even 12-0 are likely possibilities. Others feel like about 8-4 is a good result for the first season of independence.

But...do we really believe those outcomes are the most likely ones?

To find out, we wanted to simulate the 2011 BYU football season 500 times, based on what BYU fans thought the likelihood of the Cougars coming away with a win in each of their games.

Yesterday, we went to Twitter to find out what some Cougar fans were thinking about the BYU football team's chances for 2011. We asked people to send us what they think BYU's odds - in a percentage form - of winning each game.

Granted, less than 24 hours is not a great amount of time to gather an enormous amount of opinions on Twitter - unless I was Charlie Sheen or David Archuleta - but we were able to gather 11 different Cougar fan voices, including three contributors to Cougaracity.

Here are the averages of what we got from everyone. "Fans" are those who gave us odds and don't write for Cougaracity. "Blog" are from the blog contributors. "Everyone" is a combination of the two.

Opponent	Fans	Blog	Everyone
AT Ole Miss	70%	68%	69%
AT Texas	53%	49%	52%
Utah	68%	80%	71%
UCF	69%	76%	71%
Utah St.	90%	96%	92%
San Jose St	93%	96%	94%
AT Oregon St	64%	64%	64%
Idaho State	95%	96%	95%
Vs. TCU	50%	56%	52%
Idaho	91%	93%	92%
NM St	93%	96%	94%
AT Hawaii	70%	75%	71%

Then we put each set of odds through a simulation for 500 seasons to give us a solid sample size, and below are the results with the percentage of likelihood for each outcome:

Record	Fans	Blog	Everyone
12-0 =	2.4%	2.4%	2.8%
11-1 =	12.2%	17.0%	13.8%
10-2 =	25.8%	27.6%	24.6%
9-3 =	28.2%	27.6%	30.4%
8-4 =	20.4%	16.4%	17.4%
7-5 =	8.2%	7.2%	7.2%
6-6 =	2.6%	1.2%	3.0%
5-7 =	0.2%	0.6%	0.8%

Judging by the likelihood of each outcome, unless you're thinking 10-2 or 9-3 for 2011, chances are you may not actually believe your prediction. Sure, it still is possible - unless you're thinking 4-8 or worse - but based on the odds that you provided, it's not likely.

Here are some other things we found to be pretty interesting:

1. 12-0: As much as I hope and pray for an undefeated season, based on the odds from everyone, it's more likely BYU will 6-6 or worse. The odds for 11-1 aren't bad, but 9-3 and 10-2 seem to be the winners for the most likely scenario.

2. Going Bowling: According to the results of these odds, there's a 99.2% chance of BYU going to a bowl. I know none of us really saw not going to a bowl, but it's good to see anyway.

3. Reason To Be Optimistic: After going through what we did in 2010, I don't think any of us have a right to be disappointed with at least a 9-3 regular season record, and that seems like a good possibility with 71.6% of the simulated seasons going that way.

4. Rank of Opponents: It's always interesting to know which games fans deem to be the most difficult ones. Fans believed this to be the order from difficult to easy:

1) TCU - Not surprising considering our recent history against them and how they did last year, but they lost some player and won't be 2010 TCU. Nevertheless, they'll still be good.

2) Texas - Texas has a great program and out of the teams that struggled last year, you have to think they are likely the ones that can get back quickly.

3) Oregon State - THIS surprised me. They had an awful year and lose Quizz Rodgers and others. We'll see.

4) Ole Miss - This is about where I'd have them. Not very good last year and not a lot of evidence would lead one to believe they have improved that much. Nevertheless, it's an SEC team.

5) UCF - Surprising. Yes, they had a great season, but they lost a lot of experience from last season. I don't expect them to be bad, but to expect them to be what they were is asking a lot.

6) TIE - Utah AND Hawaii - What is Utah doing down here?! Utah is a good team. I think we'll win, but do we really think so little of the Utes?! We've put UCF and Oregon State ahead of them, and we've tied them with Hawaii?! OK. Games at Hawaii are crazy, but I question that.

8) Utah State - One of the games I am most looking forward to. This was the turning point last year, and after watching the USU fans storm the field after beating a 1-4 BYU team, I am ready to watch BYU fans storm the field after DEMOLISHING USU. Utah State beat us last year, but we're still OK with Cougar fans thinking VERY little of them.

9) Idaho - Sure.

10) San Jose State - Yes.

11) New Mexico State - OK.

12) Idaho State - Only surprised they weren't lower on this list.

Thanks to @zbloxham, @JakeHatchKSL, @kugrlover, @bigbman24, @ksav07, @puttforbogey, @TPFOP, and @uncle_shep for participating. Click on them to follow on Twitter.

Also, thanks to Cougaracity contributors @smg1981, @d_anderson11, and @wisc_coug for their help as well.

***If you want to list your own odds in the comments section, we will provide you with the the likelihood of the outcomes.